The customer data space continued to mature in 2024. Before I get into this year’s predictions let’s take a look at how well I did a year ago.
Prediction 1: MarTech tools will argue about what they are called. Accuracy. 4/5
There was finger pointing and name calling amongst vendors being “legacy” and “composable” but overall the movement to zero-copy and data share in the cloud was undeniable.
Prediction 2: Container services redefine MarTech. Accuracy. 3/5
Did not happen at the pace I was expecting and nothing was redefined with the possible exception of highly regulated industries. There were a few notable apps but the Enterprise App ecosystem is still nascent. I will give myself an extra point for mentioning “The term “CDP” becomes meaningless” in this prediction which most definitely did occur.
Prediction 3: Synthetic data accelerates everything. Accuracy. 2/5
I’ve still not seen much in the way of synthetic data making its way into the customer data world. The tools we built to build Neuralift are still not available commercially (though Snowflake did use our tool to create a demo) so maybe an interesting time for us to think about what we can do with them?
Prediction 4: Consultants will do well. Accuracy. 4/5
This was sort of a layup prediction. Consultants have thrived especially those with data analytics and performance marketing bent who are leaning into AI. The only reason I didn’t give it a perfect score is because during the 2024 belt tightening some consultants were the first to be let go.
Prediction 5: The smartest segments win. Accuracy. 5/5
The continued rise of the platforms namely Advantage+ and Performance Max went unabated with Amazon also joining the fray of AI enabled lookalike modeling. At this point you have to wonder why other channels like programmatic are even necessary for reach.
Let’s get into the predictions for 2025!
Prediction 1: Data Warehouses become the CDP.
The idea that you need a separate database for your customer data that you read and write into apart from the data warehouse where that data is collected, stored and governed continues to make less and less sense. Yes, CDPs are large customers of the DW but the clouds have relationships with brands outside of marketing and sell compute across the org. ActionIQ saw the light. The future is applications on top of the data in the DW.
Prediction 2: CDPs become other things.
Again we can take a cue from AIQ that will now focus on becoming part of an broader set of applicative and agentic AI. CDPs will lean more than ever into “decisioning” and “targeting” and “orchestration.” In fact Hightouch says you can use their decision engine without even needing to be a customer of their CDP. It will be interesting to see how this evolves but you can see CDPs will be making a lot of noise around AI.
Prediction 3: Snowflake and/or Databricks gets acquired.
With the new administration, a looser regulatory environment and the biggest fish in the ocean competing for compute, I expect someone to acquire Snowflake and/or Databricks in what will be the largest acquisition/merger of the decade.
Prediction 4: Open Source Starts to Make an Impact on MarTech/AdTech
Meta has started the year by releasing their first module for predictive lifetime value called LTVision “designed to empower businesses to unlock the full potential of predicted customer lifetime value (pLTV) modeling.” In November Google quietly released Meridian, a media mix model (MMM) framework that enables advertisers to set up and run their own in-house models using causal inference methodology. Expect to see more SaaS open sourced around marketing and advertising in 2025 further hurting the start-up space but helping brands and consultants. Is it possible a composable CDP will be open-sourced? Why not!
Prediction 5: MarTech or AdTech will have its “Klarna” moment with AI
If you are not familiar, last year Klarna’s CEO said that AI was now doing the work of 700 customer service reps, saving them $40M in costs annually. Their whole company is now being re-engineered around AI and further headcount reduction with increased comp for those who stay and increased margins / valuation for the business. I have a suspicion that Madtech will see its own Klarna moment this year with a brand replacing the work of hundreds of people and driving margin / valuation growth for their business.
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